Tuesday, October 11, 2016

NZDUSD - 11/10/2016

 It looks like the decline of the Kiwi continued from last week and aiming 0.695 critical support level. The drop from the 0.784 top so far looks like a three wave pattern. Funny thing is that above 0.695 I cannot rule out the correction because the Fibonacci 161.8 expansion level (usual expansion of a wave 3) is right there. 
NZDUSD - Daily chart

Last Friday's price action looks like a nice pause on the daily time frame. The bulls failed to make a reversal. Yesterday there was bearish slingshot momentum configuration setup on the 1 hour chart, which was followed by a nice signal candle. The slingshot was a strong 8 candle setup and occurred in lower blue zone which is the first support zone in a bear trend.

NZDUSD - 1 hour chart
This setup offered high return with low risk. I opened a short position at 18:18 (GMT+2). EP was @ 0.7133 Sl was 0.7149 (above the left leg of the slingshot). My first target zone is 0.701. This is very I plan to scale out 1/3 of the position. If the decline continues to the 0.695 support level I will scale out another 1/3 of the position.

NZDUSD - 4 hours chart
The higher time frames also supported this bearish setup.  The momentum of the 4 hours chart reached the sustainable bearish zone and pull back only pushed the RSI up to the first bearish support zone. After the setup got triggered the market kept declining and reached a new low. I pulled my Sl lower to 0.7115 which is just a little bit below of what I think is wave [1] of (v) of [iii].

Friday, October 7, 2016

NZDUSD - 07/10/2016

My short position got stopped out @ 0.7177 with +107 pip. 

NZDUSD - 4 hour chart
The kiwi pierced below the mutual target zone (marked with small blue rectangle) and reversed from there. Until this moment both bear and bull scenario pretty much had the same road. Now the NZDUSD reached an intersection and most likely we'll see the direction in the next 1 or 2 weeks. I decided to rule out the complex flat scenario on the 4 hours time frame mentioned in my earlier posts. 

So my bearish version suggests that an ending diagonal pattern in wave C position is completed and a price will turn down to at least 0.632 level. My (down to earth) bullish version says that the ending diagonal is incomplete and the decline from the 0.784x top is a correction and a new high will come.

It's important to note that the price only break below the first support level of 0.72 and looks like the market is testing it right now. The key level still lays around 0.697X. The momentum of the daily time frame is at the bullish support zone, but I think the bulls lack the support of the higher time frames and below the daily time frame the momentum looks really bearish. Thus I will prefer the bearish context and next week I will try to seek signaled short setup if the PA stays below the 0.731 high.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

NZDUSD - 06/10/2016

The kiwi reached the lower line of the small rectangle which marks the zone where reversal may occur. I can't see any reversal signal so far, but I decided to lower my stop loss order. The decline on the 1 hour time frame switched to channel mode after a nice sharp drop. The RSI on the 1 hour chart ( and also on the 15 minutes time frame) turned down from bearish support. 
NZDUSD - 4 hours chart
NZDUSD - 1 hour chart

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

NZDUSD - 05/10/2016

I still think that the Kiwi is more likely creating a ZZ pattern as I mentioned in my previous post.
NZDUSD - Daily chart

Some items from the cons and pros list is checked. First of all the top line of the corrective channel behaved as a resistance. The price action on the weekly and daily chart is still form a wedge, EWP wise it looks like and ending diagonal pattern. The test of the lower line was successful. 

The RSI on the weekly time frame has not reached the sustainable bullish zone and toped at the limit of the bearish resistance zone, while the daily RSI reached the sustainable bullish zone for one period and turned down and right now at the bullish support. The momentum of the 4 hours time frame looks bearish to me. All local low reached the sustainable bearish zone while the pull backs stopped in upper grey zone.

NZDUSD - 4 hours chart
The first bigger support level is pierced while last week the price was above it. Although I still cannot rule out that a strong pull back may come in a bearish scenario as well. I marked a small rectangle which is the maximum zone of a complex flat correction. Below this zone I can only think of one immediately bullish scenario. The 1-2-i-ii patterns sometimes form a triangle. So the correction from 13th of September until the 4th of October formed a triangle. Triangle can only be in wave IV, X or B position. So if this is an actual triangle patter then the price should reverse from the lower zone of the small rectangle. This would be and ideal price target for a thrust after a triangle pattern. This scenario may be ruled out below 0.7050. So reversal above 0.714  would suggest at least a strong pull back to 0.737 or that the ending diagonal pattern is most likely incomplete and a new high is still needed. We'll see...

Friday, September 23, 2016

NZDUSD - 23/09/2016

The weekly chart shows a possible ZZ pattern. 

NZDUSD - weekly chart

NZDUSD - daily chart
The structure is not yet confirmed, but there are some sings of a trend reversal:
  • The price reached the top line of the corrective channel. 
  • Wave C looks like an ending diagonal in accordance with rule of alternation. 
  • There is a bearish divergence on the weekly time frame.
  • The RSI on the weekly time frame has not reached the sustainable bull zone yet and toped at the limit of the bearish support zone.
  • The lower trendline of the ED is pierced and getting tested right now.
  • The price action retrace 50% of the drop from the 0.748. This may be enough for a wave ii or b.
There are some counter sings as well:
  • The MA10/20 channel on the weekly chart can still provide support. 
  • The momentum of the daily time frame reached the sustainable bull zone for a period and dropped back to bullish support, then the pull backed to a level a break down can only be anticipated and confirmation is needed. 
  • Structure of the correction on the 1 hour time frame may unfold into a flat pattern.
  • one crucial item is still missing from my check list. No critical support has been broken so far. The first key level for the bears is 0.72, but the level of wave (iv) of C (0.695) is the most important.
NZDUSD - 4 hours chart

NZDUSD - 1 hour chart
I opened a short on a hook setup on the 1 hour time frame. The setup was supported that both bull and bear scenarios need (bear) or tolerate (bull) a new local low. The maximum level of this mutual road for both side lays around 0.714 and may be 0.71 in respect that the price action is still above the most support important level, thus I can't rule out that wave iv of C is labeled incorrectly on the weekly chart.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Dax - 21/09/2016

Update 15:34 (GMT+2)
I'm back for a little while, so I sum up in a short update why I opened long. 

The price action broke above the trendline of L/Hs with a nice gap up while making break out attempt at the same time and right now testing it's higher line. This channel break out attempt with a choppy price action from to low could suggest basically two things: it's either a diagonal (leading or ending cannot be determined yet) or a 1-2-i-ii series.  The momentum reached the sustainable bullish zone for 1 period only and droped back to the bullish support level. I think until the parallel channel holds the price action within the bulls may have more chance then the bears.

It's hard to rule out anything right now with this structure due to the fact that important news event will occur today. The gap is still open and the price dropped to an ideal structural retracement level. I manage my long with a close SL level. Right now @ 10438.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Trades - 20/09/2016

Update 18:20 (GMT+2):
Decided to close DJI30 short @ 18169 with +27 points.

Update 18:13 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18185.
DAX30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 10400.
Put trailing stops on both.
Update 18:05 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18190.
DAX30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 10404.
Update 17:45 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18200.
DAX30 short opened: EP@10424; SL@10426 (originally@10448); TP@10379.
DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update 16:50 (GMT+2):
Risk lowered. SL @ 18205.

Update 16:35 (GMT+2):
Risk lowered. SL @ 18240.

Update 16:15 (GMT+2):
DAX long stopped out @ 10426 with +47 points.

DJI30 short opened.
DJI30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

Update 14:32 (GMT+2):
SL raised to 10426.

Update 13:23 (GMT+2):
SL raised to 10400.