Friday, September 23, 2016

NZDUSD - 23/09/2016

The weekly chart shows a possible ZZ pattern. 

NZDUSD - weekly chart

NZDUSD - daily chart
The structure is not yet confirmed, but there are some sings of a trend reversal:
  • The price reached the top line of the corrective channel. 
  • Wave C looks like an ending diagonal in accordance with rule of alternation. 
  • There is a bearish divergence on the weekly time frame.
  • The RSI on the weekly time frame has not reached the sustainable bull zone yet and toped at the limit of the bearish support zone.
  • The lower trendline of the ED is pierced and getting tested right now.
  • The price action retrace 50% of the drop from the 0.748. This may be enough for a wave ii or b.
There are some counter sings as well:
  • The MA10/20 channel on the weekly chart can still provide support. 
  • The momentum of the daily time frame reached the sustainable bull zone for a period and dropped back to bullish support, then the pull backed to a level a break down can only be anticipated and confirmation is needed. 
  • Structure of the correction on the 1 hour time frame may unfold into a flat pattern.
  • one crucial item is still missing from my check list. No critical support has been broken so far. The first key level for the bears is 0.72, but the level of wave (iv) of C (0.695) is the most important.
NZDUSD - 4 hours chart
NZDUSD - 1 hour chart
I opened a short on a hook setup on the 1 hour time frame. The setup was supported that both bull and bear scenarios need (bear) or tolerate (bull) a new local low. The maximum level of this mutual road for both side lays around 0.714 and may be 0.71 in respect that the price action is still above the most important level, thus I can't rule out that wave iv of C is labeled correctly on the weekly chart.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Dax - 21/09/2016

Update 15:34 (GMT+2)
I'm back for a little while, so I sum up in a short update why I opened long. 

The price action broke above the trendline of L/Hs with a nice gap up while making break out attempt at the same time and right now testing it's higher line. This channel break out attempt with a choppy price action from to low could suggest basically two things: it's either a diagonal (leading or ending cannot be determined yet) or a 1-2-i-ii series.  The momentum reached the sustainable bullish zone for 1 period only and droped back to the bullish support level. I think until the parallel channel holds the price action within the bulls may have more chance then the bears.

It's hard to rule out anything right now with this structure due to the fact that important news event will occur today. The gap is still open and the price dropped to an ideal structural retracement level. I manage my long with a close SL level. Right now @ 10438.

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Trades - 20/09/2016

Update 18:20 (GMT+2):
Decided to close DJI30 short @ 18169 with +27 points.

Update 18:13 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18185.
DAX30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 10400.
Put trailing stops on both.
Update 18:05 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18190.
DAX30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 10404.
Update 17:45 (GMT+2):
DJI30 short: Risk lowered. SL @ 18200.
DAX30 short opened: EP@10424; SL@10426 (originally@10448); TP@10379.
DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update 16:50 (GMT+2):
Risk lowered. SL @ 18205.

Update 16:35 (GMT+2):
Risk lowered. SL @ 18240.

Update 16:15 (GMT+2):
DAX long stopped out @ 10426 with +47 points.

DJI30 short opened.
DJI30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

Update 14:32 (GMT+2):
SL raised to 10426.

Update 13:23 (GMT+2):
SL raised to 10400.

Monday, September 19, 2016

weekly outlook - 19/09/2016

I had a long weekend so I try to make up this absence. I'll try to post update on more instrument during the day.

The medium channel on the weekly chart so far held price above. EWP structural support is also approximately lays right here. It is key to the bull to keep the price above this support level, because if this support breaks impulsively then the price most likely will test the next support zone or may be even the lower part of the bigger parallel channel. It's crucial to note that the smallest channel is broken and the market may retest this right now, but this needs confirmation. The RSI not yet reached sustainable bull zone.
DJI30 (CFD) - weekly chart
The momentum of the daily chart reached the bearish zone then retraced to support zone. This shows me that the price action can easily fold into an impulsive wave and at least a breakdown from a bearish triangle can be expected if the pattern gets confirmed.

DJI30 (CFD) - daily chart
On smaller time frame the price action looks like it's forming a triangle which is not yet complete. Triangles can only be in wave 4, wave B or wave X position. But it's important to remember that 1-2-i-ii patterns can form that looks like a triangle as well. This is why it's important to wait out the break of the kex levels. This could  determine my context.
DJI30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Trades - 09/15/2016

Update: 19:05
Kiwi stopped out at (16:48 gmt+2) 0.72822 with +11 pip.

Update: 14:45
Closed dax @ 10362 with -55 poitns.
Opened kiwi short @ 0.72934, sl@0.731

Update 11:45 (GMT+2)
Closed dax long @ 10383 with +19 points.
I opened a short @ 10383 ; sl@ 10413.
Possible bearish slingshot on 15 minutes chart.
Bad decision. Got stopped out almost immediately.
Reentered a long with a smaller position @ 10417 with a more loosened SL@10337 with TP@10555. Looks like the original context and setup might work out. This is my last try. If this gets stop out then I'll "bench" myself for today.

Update 10:50 (GMT+2)
KIWI long got stopped out. I broke even.

I opened a dax long position. The last support level (10320) is so far untouched. The drop is contained by a parallel downward channel. Corrections tend to end at the boundary line or at middle line of these parallel channel. The momentum on the daily time frame is still at support, while the price is right now still at the lower part of a bigger range. This is may be my last try for a long and I only aim the top of a smaller channel shown on the 1 hour chart. This is where the MA10/20 on the daily chart can be found at the moment. It's quite a delicate situation because channels pretty much can be drawn across the chart. The channel drawn from the high 10542 is still a resistance and the price may keep bouncing down from that line.

DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart

DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart

I have a KIWI long right now. I still have pretty much the same context as before. The downward channel behaved as resistance so far. I expect to pierce below the critical support zone then a test of this level should be in place.
NZDUSD - Daily chart

NZDUSD - 4 hours chart

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Trades - 14/09/2016

Rest of my DJI30 long stopped out @ 18085 and DAX30 long was closed @ 10370.

Update: 18:01
DJI30 long was opened @ 18104. Scaled out 1/2 @ 18122. Sl raised to 18085.
DJI30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart
Update: 17:39
DAX Sl@10370

Update: 17:17
DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Dax long @10372, sl@10349.

Update: 17:07
Closed kiwi@0.73961

Update: 16:32 (GMT+2)
DJI30 reached top of the parallel channel. I decided to close @ 18151 with +61 point.

DJ30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart (small channel behaved as resistance so far)

Update: 16:22 (GMT+2)
All my positions got stopped out. I opened a DJI30 and another NZDUSD long. SLs set to break even.

DJI30 (CFD) - 4 hours chart

NZDUSD - 15 minutes chart

Update 13:20
I raised my kiwi sl to 0.758. Scaled out half @ 0.783
Opened another dax long@10424, sl @ 10415 now, tp@10495. I raised the sl on my other long as well to 10385. Picture will be uploaded later on.

I just made some mind adjustment on my last update yesterday. The context is still pretty much the same.
DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart
I scaled out half my position at top zone of the mini range shown on the 15 minutes chart. This range needs to break for bullish continuation. The corrective channel of the yesterday's drop looks broken after a successful retest. Price must stay above 10350 to keep the short term bullish anticipation valid. 
DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart
I also have opened a long NZDUSD. I anticipate at least a retest of the local high, then ideally a breakout near to the 0.736 resistance zone. I plan to scale out around 0.730 if the bulls will continue to prevail.
NZDUSD - 1 hour chart

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

DAX30 - 13/09/2016

Update 18:15 (GMT+2):
My long got stopped out. I'm looking for a reentry on the long side if a setup will come up. The market dropped to an ideal Fibonacci retracement level and touched the lower line of the corrective channel. (This is what I wanted to realize with my short position.) This should be a good place to buy if a setup and signal will come along too. It's wait and see now, because if the smaller channel fails to provide support and breaks, then a new low can be expected and may trigger at least a wave [5] or may be even something bigger.
DAX30 (CFD) - 15 minutes chart

Update 16:36

Opened long@10433, sl@10405


Closed position@10457


Update 15:16 gmt+2:
Lowered my risk. Sl@10485

Update 14:46 gmt+2:
Opened a short @ 10467 sl@10500, tp@10405
For some reason I can't upload image from my cellphone. I'll try to upload when I'll be back at my desktop.

Update 13:22 gmt+2:
 The bounce from 10425 low looks corrective so far. New local low might come today.

Yesterday the market spiked below the 10350 (Fibo 1.618 expansion level) then failed to unfold into an impulse wave. This means that the range is still intact provided support for the bulls. Although now rules have been broken, this bounce right now doesn't look proportional in time or price with a wave [2].
DAX30 (CFD) - 1 hour chart.

I think the market will bounce back above 10600 level and will try to test the upper part of the range. The context in my reading is still open in either way. The weekly chart shows that this range is near the higher line of the corrective (or maybe base channel).

DAX30 (CFD) - Weekly chart.
If the market stays above yesterday's low then I think it has a high possibility that the DAX will at least make another L/H or maybe a new local low as part of complex corrective pattern. I will only start to think of a breakout if the weekly channel gets broken and tested.
DAX30 (CFD) - Daily chart.

DAX30 (CFD) - 4 hour chart.
The momentum of the daily time frame provided support for the price action while the RSI on lower time frames reached a state of climax yesterday. Summa summarum, at the moment I think it will be more likely to make profit with an intraday long signal and only expect a retracement. This would be a mutual road for both bullish and bearish interpretation. But if this support will fail hen I will start to think that the preceding price action was a (i)-(ii)-[1]-[2] situation.