Trades - 31/03/2015

18:33
Sl lowered  to 11952.

17:00 (GMT+1)
If this is really an ending diagonal in a flat (c) position, then at least a higher degree wave [c] should be on its way under today's low real quick.

m5-m15-h1

16:37 (GMT+1)
Just a thought. It still needs confirmation.

m5-m15-h1

15:32 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out.

15:25 (GMT+1)
This is a very delicate place. There is a nice short setup on the 1 hour chart, but that doesn't mean the market can't retrace to a higher price even if the context is right. The price must break below the channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart for continuing the downside movement.

m5-m15-h1

14:47 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I'm gonna take a break now from trading because I wasn't patient enough.
 
14:43 (GMT+1)
I'm betting on the continuation of the downside movement. Sl is lowered to 11975.5.

m5-m15-h1

14:38 (GMT+1)
I've tried to make a long scalp but the position got stop out near break even.
dax_m5_scalp

14:24 (GMT+1)
Closed position at 11963.5. I'm waiting for the next setup.

14:13 (GMT+1)
Break even.

14:08 (GMT+1)
I'm trying to play out a bearish continuation setup.

m1-m5-m15

13:46 (GMT+1)
Short position got stop out. The market might pause for a little while now and retrace some of today's drop.

13:27 (GMT+1)
Lowered my SL to 12000.

13:04 (GMT+1)
The momentum of the 1 hour chart looks bearish: the failure to swing high was followed by a bearish cross.

m5-m15-h1

11:54 (GMT+1)
Break even. I try to be patient and sit on my hand.

11:52 (GMT+1)
Short opened.

m1-m5-m15

11:43 (GMT+1)
Closed on M1 exit signal at 12051.5.

11:37 (GMT+1)
I opened a short position and lowered my sl. This might be just a wave [B] on the 1 minute chart, but the correction channel is near (see 1 hour chart) and I hope that the price action will pierce right through it.

m5-m15-h1

11:13 (GMT+1)
I decided to close my short. I'm gonna try to reenter though.


11:11 (GMT+1)
Break even.


11:06 (GMT+1)
I'm trying to play out a short setup again. It looks like the bullish slingshot on the 1 hour chart wasn't able to push the price higher. A break down under the today's low would support the bear bias.

m5-m15-h1

10:26 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out.


10:08 (GMT+1)
I opened a short position. The minimum target is 12030, but I hope it will go lower and test the support zone located at 11800s level. SL is at 2 point above today's high.

m5-m15-h1

9:57 (GMT+1)
I think the channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart should determine the direction of the next wave. In case of a new local high I will look for a long setup.

m5-m15-h1

DAX Context - 30/03/2015

The short term bull context from last week was proved to be right by today's price action. The index reached an ideal level for a wave B of (4). The fact that the an instrument reaches an ideal level doesn't mean that it should stop and reverse immediately. We have a very bullish period behind us and the bulls thought once again it was a buy the dip situation. As I was writing in the last couple of posts, I still anticipate that this rally should be a wave B. But this anticipation sure doesn't mean shorting the market right away. It only means that I should pay even closer attention for reversing signals. This is especially true during a wave B, because it can go up to a new high without voiding the wave count.

I'm gonna pay close attention to the parallel channel of the rally from last Thursday, because so far this channel looks like a corrective channel. The triangle in the middle has given us a good sign, especially after the test was completed, but the momentum on the 4 hours chart wasn't able to reach the sustainable bull zone yet.

4 hours chart with correction channels

The daily candle is a strong bullish candle and actually the market rallied from a pretty good place because it was a crossroads of the higher degree base channel, a bottom of a correction channel from ATH and the support of the MA10/20 channel.

Daily chart

So the momentum of the daily and above time frames - in my reading - is still bullish, while the 4 hours' is in the neutral zone, but the smaller time frames showed a small sign of reversal at the end of the day. The 1 hour chart is good example ofthat. But one little signal is not enough, especially if it is the last one of a trading day. I need to see 2 more things to start thinking about at least a correction: an impulsive break below the level of the preceding wave 4 and a pierce of the correction channel.

1 hour chart - last candle suggesting at least a small pause

Altogether I think it is early to trade long and aiming the ATH, but it is also to early to trade short for at least a correction of the rally from last Thursday. If the market will show the aforementioned signs of reversal, I still think it is going to be only a part of a correction: either a flat or a triangle pattern. The wave C of a flat could easily break last week's low, while a triangle must stay above that level and the wave C should terminate around the zone of 11800s.

Daily Dax - 30/03/15

18:27
I decided to close position at 12105.

17:19
Position is still alive. The rise is fragmented though. I can see potential in this long setup to hold it a little longer, and the market should go up to the 12150s ideally.

15:58 (GMT+1)
Break even and scale out at 12072. Trailing stop is on and tp is deleted.

14:46 (GMT+1)
I'm betting on the continuation of the bull for today.

m5-m15-h4

13:38 (GMT+1)
The RSI doesn't confirm the triangle pattern. It is gonna be either a flat or at least a temporary trend reversal within a higher degree correction.
 
13:20 (GMT+1)
May be another triangle pattern unfolding on the 15 minutes chart.

12:25 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. Looking for another long setup.

10:45 (GMT+1)
I reentered the market on the long side. SL raised to 12030.5. I'm still anticipating that the market will reach higher prices today, but even if this is going to be a small degree wave (B) of (X), I am hoping that will have the chance to at least break even.

m5-m15-h4

10:35 (GMT+1)
Rest of my long got stop pit at 12030.

9:55 (GMT+1)
Systems are partially up an running. I'm still anticipating a wave B as part of a bigger triangle or a flat pattern. Tp set to 12148.5.

m5-m15-h4

9:48 (GMT+1)

Scale out at 12039. Sl is moved to break even.

9:42 (GMT+1)
Both of my systems are down. I can only follow the market on my cell.

9:36 (GMT+1)
Open long at 12008.5, SL: 11985

9:30 (GMT+1)

Unfortunately I couldn't hop on the long wagon after the triangle test was completed (morning meeting and a little technical difficulty with the internet).

Hopefully I can still find a setup to play out.

DAX - 27/03/2015

19:09 GMT+1 
Price action on the 15 minutes chart looks like a triangle pattern is unfolding in most likely a b of b position, although it can also be a bearish triangle in a lesser degree. Open test is needed to determine its position. Later on I'll post an illustration about this.

13:45 (GMT+1)
I closed my position on my cellphone at 11843. I'm done with trading for today. Have a good weekend everyone!

13:31 (GMT+1)
Break even.


13:28 (GMT+1)
Channel must break for a bigger downside movement. I got leave for a meeting and I won't be able to follow the position. I put a trainling stop on the position.

m5 charts

13:18 (GMT+1)
Break even.

13:11 (GMT+1)
I'm gonna try to play out a short scenario.

m5-m15-h1

12:07 (GMT+1)
I decided to close the position at 11900.


11:42 (GMT+1)
I think the market will test today's high, but at least the 11930 level.

m5-m15-h1

 11:20 (GMT+1)
Closed the rest of my long at 11885.5. I'm gonna take a break from trading now.  The correction from the temporary top has reached the minimal level I expected but I think a more complex pattern on the 5 and 15 minutes chart may unfold, and we might see the price action to break below today's low. We'll see...it's friday :)

11:15 (GMT+1)
Opened a long. I expect at least a wave B to be carried out. SL is already raised to 11870 and I scaled the position  at 11890.

11:04 (GMT+1)

Channel drawn on the 5 minutes chart might decide the direction of the next wave. So far the drop is contained by a parallel channel. Upside break out would suggest at least a correction to the level of 11900s. I plan to open a long if the channel gets tested.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:59 (GMT+1)
Stop out.

10:56 (GMT+1)

m5 charts

SL lowered to 11823.

10:40 (GMT+1)
I didn't wait for the TP and closed the short at 11817. The position reached 2R.

10:35 (GMT+1)

Back on the short side for one last time. So far my balance is negative for the day, and I don't want to burn anymore of this week's profit. If this position gets closed in a loss, I will go away from the market at least until the U.S. opening. Another mistake would show me that I can't see the market well at moment.

m5-m15-h1 charts

10:31 (GMT+1)
It was a bad decision to open a long position and I got my punishment for that.

10:27 (GMT+1)
Quick try for a long. Price has bounced from the bottom line of the channel. And it got quickly closed too :(

m1 chart

10:22 (GMT+1)
One more try to play out this short setup. Hopefully the correction won't be a flat...

m5-m15-h1

I decided to step back and closed my position at the bottom line of a channel on the 1 minute chart. I'm gonna reenter if new local low will occur.

10:00 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I blew this trade, but I'm gonna seek reentry on the short side if there is an opportunity.

9:51 (GMT+1)
Break even. 1 hour candle looks like it's going to be a reversal one.

9:47 (GMT+1)
Even if this is not going to be an impulse wave on the 5 minutes chart, I think the 11850 level is reachable from here. Lowered my SL to 11890.

m5-m15-h1 charts

9:35 (GMT+1)
So far the drop on the1 minute chart looks like a correction. Position got stop out. A new high would suggest a continuation of the rally, while a break of 11880 would make a bearish bias.

9:32 (GMT+1)
Short position opened at 11904. SL already lowered to 11911. Tp modified to 11860. I also put a trailing stop on it.

m5-m15-h1 charts

9:25 (GMT+1)

For a temporary top to be in place the market needs to make a reversal candle on the 5 and 15 minutes chart and then a break of the Elliott channel drawn on the 15 minutes chart. I plan to scalp today and I think my first trade will be a short. Ideal target zone would be the support provided by a triangle (m15) around 11850. Now I'm gonna wait for a setup.

m5-m15-h1 charts

8:45 (GMT+1)
MA10/20 channel on the 15 minutes chart supported the upside movement nicely. Ideal fibonacci expansion levels have been reached. A smaller degree impulse wave may be building a temporary top.

Dax - 26/03/2015

17:23 (GMT+1)
Closed the rest of my long at 11831. I'm done with trading for today. Context will be updated at the end of the day or tomorrow morning.

16:59 (GMT+1)
Context of the bigger picture will be influenced by today's daily candle.

16:41 (GMT+1)
Although it looks like finally the break out attempt will be successful, but I decided to scale out half my position at 11760. My primary target zone is 11800-11840.

16:32 (GMT+1)
Break even.

16:29 (GMT+1)
Channel hold back the break out attempt. This my last try. SL raised to 11700.

m5-m15-h1

16:21 (GMT+1)
Positions got stop out.

15:44(GMT+1)
I'm really hoping I see the market well. Fingers crossed ;)

m5-m15-h1

15:34 (GMT+1)
Closed long at 11718. There might be a pull back on 5 minutes chart, but I'm gonna seek a reentry though.

15:22 (GMT+1)
Break even.

15:18 (GMT+1)
Opened 1 contract (CFD) long. Hopefully it will bounce from the lower line of the channel.

m5-m15-h1

15:12 (GMT+1)
Position is closed by SL. Price action bounced back from the top of the channel. I'm gonna wait for another setup.

15:00 (GMT+1)
SL raised to 11688.5

15:00 (GMT+1)
Opened 1 contract (CFD) long. The channel drawn on 5 and 15 minutes charts is crucial.

14:39 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out at 11684. I plan to reenter in case of a new local high, because I can't rule out at least one more marginal low.

14:24 (GMT+1)
Raised my SL to 11684. This might get more complicated...

14:05 (GMT+1)
Just got back. On the way to a meeting I decided to try this long thing one more time and opened a long position at 1160.5 on my cell phone. I'm still not sure it will work out as I planned though.

m5-m15-h1

Today the daily close will be really important to me, beside the momentum of the 4 hours chart, which might find support around here. We'll see..

h4-d1

Even if this position will play out as I thought it will, I'm still gonna be disappointed with my performance. I should have be much more patient.

12:46  (GMT+1)
Position got stop out. I'm most likely done for today with trading.

12:23  (GMT+1)
I see a bigger potential in this long trade then I first thought. I lowered my SL to 11654.5. This is a little hazardous, but I can see a possibility for a gap filling today. TP at 11820. We'll see. If this position will stop out, I will be getting strike out too for the rest of the day.

m5-m15-h1

11:25 (GMT+1
Raised my TP to 11749 and put on a trailing stop.

11:25 (GMT+1)
I put my SL higher to 11674.5. TP set to 11730.

11:23 (GMT+1)
One more shot at the long trade. Hopefully this one will pan out better then the last one.

m5-m15-h1

11:19 (GMT+1)
I just had a badly timed entry on the long side and my stop closed the position almost immediately.
EP: 11670, SL:11655 - This was strike 2.


11:06 (GMT+1)
Ending diagonal pattern got ruled out, but there is another channel that might decide the near term direction. Upside break out attempt may trigger at least a wave 4 correction on the 15 minutes chart.

channel on 5 minutes chart

10:56 (GMT+1)
Position got stop out at break even but I think the context is still intact.

10:50 (GMT+1)
I'm paying close attention to the possibility of an ending diagonal pattern. If the market invalids this pattern then a more intense downside movement will come. I manage my position as a counter trend trade thus hold my TP at 11610 and put on a relatively tight trailing stop.

Possible ending diagonal pattern on 5 minutes chart

10:46 (GMT+1):
It is time to break even.

10:44 (GMT+1):
Lowered my SL to 11665 and modified my TP to 11610.

10:42 (GMT+1):
I try to play out another bearish setup with a possible bearish slingshot on 5 minutes chart.

m5-m15-h4

10:24 (GMT+1) - Context:

The market continued to drop lower and almost reached the target of my last trade. Even higher time frame (4 hours chart) shows signs of the bearish concept, but for a bigger drop the correction channel must be broken and ideally needs to get tested. In this case I will start to think a higher degree trend reversal. The ideal Fibonacci levels within a correction have been already reached - [w] and [y]; (a) of [y] and (c) of [y] and so on - but regarding the daily chart the ideal retracement level would be in 11500sh zone (the zone of wave 2 of an extended wave 5, which is also the zone for the 38.2 Fibonacci level).

10:12 (GMT+1):

I've decided to close my short at 11661. Now I'm gonna take a coffee break :)

10:10 (GMT+1):

The bottom of the channel drawn on the 1 hour chart is getting near. I'm really considering closing my position.

9:58 (GMT+1):

Entered on the short side on a 1 minute signal. It looks promising. We'll see how it's gonna pan out. I lowered my SL to 11710 and put my TP at 11615.

m5-m15-h4

9:46 (GMT+1):

I think this channel is crucial and will decide the direction of the next wave.

5 mintues chart

9:40 (GMT+1):

I've sold 1 contract (CFD) but it looks like I haven't been waiting patiently enough because my position already got stop out.

EP: 11700, SL: 11715

This is strike one!

9:23 (GMT+1):

This is a place where patience is needed. There was a nice and pretty fast drop and so far the market left a nice gap on the chart, especially if you look at the cash index. It is difficult to enter the market this late, because very wide price swings may occur. So with my usual 15 point SL order a stop out is very likely. I need to sit on my hands and wait for a nice setup within my core risk.

I pay close attention to the channel drawn up on the 5 minutes chart. The RSI on the 1 hour chart broke the bullish support zone and the drop started from an ideal level of momentum. For more movement to the downside the traders on the 4 hours and daily charts have to think that this is actually not a "buy the dip" place.

m5-m15-h4

Let's take a closer look on the daily chart. As I was saying yesterday a daily close below the MA10 line might open the way for the price to touch the MA20 line. This channel created by these moving averages supported nicely the whole (in my opinion) wave 3. Today's low actually touched the base channel of the 1-2. If you box the size of wave 2 correction you can see that this drop from the ATH is already equal to wave 2 time wise. The rule of alternation would suggest if this is actually a correction then it should be a slower and more complex one then it was wave 2. It is true that you can chart the wave count differently, but this is what I followed throughout the rally and so far I see no reason to change it, unless the market prove it otherwise.

Daily chart of the rally

8:01 (GMT+1): context

With Today's gap down opening in futures, the minimum retracment for a correction was reached, but there is still more room for the bearish side.

Trades - 25/03/2015

17:20 Context:
The bearish bias on the smaller degree was proved to be right, but the RSI on the 1 hour chart and above still above the bullish support zone. I can't exclude the possiblity that the price action from the ATH is a triangle pattern as wave 4, but at the moment I would give more chance for a  triangle in wave [x] of 4, although the middle of the correction looks like a flat (as shown in the earlier post). This is the main reason I closed my short position at the primary target zone.

Even if this drop from 12030sh level is part of a wave (c) of [y] of 4 as I originally thought, I anticipate a complex and fragmented wave (c), where high pullback in smaller degree might occur, but these pullbacks would disappear in higher time frame candles (e.g.: 4 hours candle). There is one important thing to note: the daily time frame broke the MA10 line. A close below this might open the way for the price to touch the MA20.

So in this situation I think the best I could do with 1 contract (CFD) is to exit at the primary target zone and wait for the picture to clear out a bit.

h1-h4-D1

 

16:59 (GMT+1) 
Closed position at 11880. Context will be updated later on.

16:10 (GMT+1) 
I put my SL to break even at 11953. I am waiting for the channel-test to play out. Hopefully my position will live on.

15:41 (GMT+1) 
Due to the larger then usual risk and my busy day, I decided to lower my SL to 11972.  The price bounced back from the lower channel on 15 minutes chart. For continuation of the downside movement this channel must be broken and ideally needs to be tested. I put a trailing stop on the position. We'll see how this setup will play out.

15:25 (GMT+1) 
I had to leave for a while and I just got back. The 1 hour chart is showing a bearish cross on the RSI and it would be good if the MA10/20 would make a cross too. I'm paying close attention to the channel on the 15 minutes chart. Breaking this channel would signal the continuation of the downside movement.

As I was typing the update, a 5 minutes signal occurred and I opened a short position. Minimum target zone is a bit under today's low, but I can see potential to reach even lower prices today, but in both case it is necessary to stay below this local high shown on the 5 minutes chart.

m5-m15-h1

12:55 (GMT+1) 
1 hour chart ideal fibo level (161.8) is nearing which is also a support zone. I closed the position at 11902.

12:47 (GMT+1) 
Lowered my SL to 11935.

12:32 (GMT+1) 
I entered again on the short side, although it is not yet clear that the channel test is done.

m5-m15-h1

12:16 (GMT+1)  
I closed the position at 11949. Now I'm waiting how channel test will work out. I plan to get back on the bearish side if the price action gets below today's low.

12:01 (GMT+1)  
This is actually would be a good time and place for scaling out the position but I only have 1 contract (CFD). I decided to sit on my hands and wait what is going to happen. I expect a test of the channel shown on the 15 minutes chart.

11:56 (GMT+1) 
Price action is really fragmented, so I try to follow the market on 5 minutes chart and above. I'm paying close attention to the MA10/20 channel on 5 minutes chart, the base channel shown on the 15 minutes chart, and the RSI on the 1 hour chart. The moving averages on the RSI (1 hour chart) might produce a bearish cross which would make the smaller degree bearish case stronger. 

m5-m15-h1

11:27 (GMT+1) 
Market moved 1R so I put my SL to break even.

11:21 (GMT+1)
I lowered my SL to 11990. The price action on the 1 minute chart is rather showing correction signs but the momentum still stayed in the sustainable bearish zone.

11:10 (GMT+1)
I just got in front of the computer and decided to enter the market on the short side, although it may be a little too soon. I still think that yesterday's price action was part of a correction and I still anticipate that the sideway channel will hold on for a while. My primary target zone for today is 11860. The momentum on the hourly and 4 hours charts are still in neutral zone and it is necessary to break down today's low to null a close bullish slingshot for the bearish bias to be intact. We'll see how this is gonna pan out.

Trades - 24/03/2015

This is what I'm looking at the moment. For context see the earlier posts.

M5-M15-H1 - 24/03/2015

Update: The channel on M1 is very important to look at right now. I am waiting for a test before pulling the trigger.

Channel on M1 chart

Update: Still waiting how the channel test will pan out. In case of a new local high I might look for a long setup for a wave (c) within a triangle up to the 12000ish level.

Update: I bought 1 CFD. 1 minute channel showed upside potential and because the break out attempt was intense engough I could slide my SL to break even and put my TP to 11995. We'll see how this one will work out.

Long trade triggered by the M1 channel test

Update: Position got closed by the SL at EP. Now I wiill wait for another opportunity. The context of smaller timeframes are still open in either way.

Update: I'm looking at a short setup on the 5 minutes chart. My entry timing has been a bit late, but the markert moved 1R already and let me move my SL to near break even. I did this because even if the H4 bearish bias will be valid, a little pull back may occur on the 5 minutes chart.

m1-m5-h1 charts

Update: Position got closed by SL at 11894. I will be taking a coffee break.








Update: The fall from today's high looks corrective and the channel looks broken.

m5-m15-h1 charts

Update: The market shows upward movement so I decided to follow the price action by manual candle trailing stop on 5 minutes chart.

Update: Position got closed by SL at 11895. I give one more chance for this smaller degree long context. In my experience the DAX likes to make 1 or 2 pull back before a break out.

m5-m15-h1 charts

Update: On the minute chart there is a small channel that was broken. I slide my SL a little closer to my EP.

Update: I tried to stay patient and hold my Sl at break even. I got stopped out again. I made a bad decision not closing at the middle of a correction channel. I will seek reentry if the market stays above 11865, but now I'm waiting for another setup, I'll sit on my hands for a minute to see what is going on.

Update: 1 hour chart gets interesting and it might creat a bullish setup, but it would still need some time.

This is what I try to play out, although it might makes another leg before a break out attempt.

Update: Upside movement is going on. I put my SL at break even. Fingers crossed.

Update: I have to leave now. I put a trailing stop on my position and set the TP at 11195.

Update: Position was closed. I still see potential in the hourly long setup and this is why I reentered the market on the long side for one last time today.

Update: I raised my SL to 11961. It looks like the market proved my short term expectation. Even if I got closed out again I will be OK with today's performance, because I was able to adjust my first expectation to the ongoing price action.




Update: I closed the position at 11984.

M15-H1-H4 charts

Context: The setup on the 1 hour chart is nicely unfolding but it is possible that it will end soon. This scenario would need the RSI to stop at 63. The momentum on the 4 hour chart is still in neutral zone after rising from the bull support zone. On smaller time frames I think the index still needs a 4-5 topping procces. We'll see how it works out. This is just an expectation and no trading idea at all.

Update: There is a long setup I try to play out. It is common for wave 5 to be qucik and may be it would be just a spike.

Update: This looks like a triangle on m1-m5. Closed position at 12030. 2R in the pocket.

Update:  I can see a short opportunity, especially because the channel on the 15 minutes chart is likely to be broken soon. Since I started to type the market already has droped 15 point.

Update: 1 hour chart shows a nice reversal candle while the momentum turned down from an ideal level. The position is still open, but the SL is very close. We'll see how it works out.

Update: Last position is closed by SL in a slight loss. I'm done for today. See you tomorrow!